Reliability Assessment and Warning Threshold Determination for Disk-Lock Scaffold Systems Based on the Surrogate Model Method

Wang Xingyu; Wang Lei; Yang Yan; Lin Zhonghe; Yu Guoqing; Chen Jiali

doi:10.13206/j.gjgS25090103

Volume 41 Issue 6

Jun. 2026

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Wang Xingyu, Wang Lei, Yang Yan, Lin Zhonghe, Yu Guoqing, Chen Jiali. Reliability Assessment and Warning Threshold Determination for Disk-Lock Scaffold Systems Based on the Surrogate Model Method[J]. STEEL CONSTRUCTION(Chinese & English), 2026, 41(6): 44-54. doi: 10.13206/j.gjgS25090103

Citation:

Wang Xingyu, Wang Lei, Yang Yan, Lin Zhonghe, Yu Guoqing, Chen Jiali. Reliability Assessment and Warning Threshold Determination for Disk-Lock Scaffold Systems Based on the Surrogate Model Method[J]. STEEL CONSTRUCTION(Chinese & English), 2026, 41(6): 44-54. doi: 10.13206/j.gjgS25090103

Citation:

Wang Xingyu, Wang Lei, Yang Yan, Lin Zhonghe, Yu Guoqing, Chen Jiali. Reliability Assessment and Warning Threshold Determination for Disk-Lock Scaffold Systems Based on the Surrogate Model Method[J]. STEEL CONSTRUCTION(Chinese & English), 2026, 41(6): 44-54. doi: 10.13206/j.gjgS25090103

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Reliability Assessment and Warning Threshold Determination for Disk-Lock Scaffold Systems Based on the Surrogate Model Method

doi: 10.13206/j.gjgS25090103

1. China Construction Eighth Engineering Division Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200122, China;
2. China Construction Eighth Engineering Bureau Co., Ltd. Southern Branch, Shenzhen 518000, China;
3. Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Mechanics, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500, China

Received Date: 2025-09-01
Available Online: 2026-07-06

Abstract

Abstract

To reasonably assess the structural reliability of disk-lock scaffold systems， this paper proposes a modeling and calculation method based on multi-level plastic hinges and joint stiffness. Taking a typical high formwork support project of Kunming Changshui T2 Terminal as a case study， this study established a statistical model for the uncertainty of key parameters. The reliability indexes of the scaffold system were quantitatively evaluated via a surrogate model approach， and a method for determining reliability warning thresholds was developed. The results indicated that， compared with corresponding experimental data， the proposed calculation method based on multi-level plastic hinge theory and joint stiffness achieved an error within 5%， which met engineering requirements. Furthermore， based on the existing scaffold response dataset， the response surface-Monte Carlo surrogate modeling method realized rapid reliability assessment for high formwork support systems. In addition， the quantitative determination method of warning thresholds based on exceedance probability supported the real-time adjustment of thresholds， thereby improving the early warning accuracy for high formwork structures.
- high formwork support,
- plastic hinge,
- response surface-Monte Carlo method,
- reliability assessment,
- warning thresholds

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References(29)

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